How to Lose the World in Five Months
For the allure of raw personal power, Trump has forsaken a much greater national power. Does he realize it — or just not care?
The corruption, incompetence, cruelty, lawlessness, chaos, terror and violence the Trump administration has unleashed in the past five months are well-documented. Some observers have pointed out that Americans lack the vocabulary to describe the most authoritarian policies and actions we’ve seen, and two Russian writers recently proposed importing Russian terms, much like the adoption of glasnost and perestroika in English in the 1980s.
Of all of Trump’s unrestrained deeds so far, I consider one to be the most feeble-minded. Actually, this is no time to be diplomatic — of course, I mean the dumbest. For the allure of raw personal power and the tingle of bossing around other countries with tariffs, travel bans and threats of land grabs, Trump has relinquished a much greater power.
I’m talking not only about soft power, but about the uniquely potent combination of hard, economic and soft power — let’s call it H.E.S.P. (some prefer the term “smart power,” though its application has often fallen short of that label).
This H.E.S.P. combination enabled the United States to organize and manage the world to its own liking more successfully than any other country in history. Whether one celebrates or deplores that feat is another matter. My point is that the self-bestowed authority to write the rules of the road, set global standards, enforce them and punish perceived abusers gave Washington unprecedented influence in international relations.
I’m not suggesting that the United States has pulled all the strings everywhere, nor am I peddling conspiracy theories that imagine a hidden American hand behind every murky affair. Many countries have resisted U.S. pressure, and influencing their actions hasn’t been easy. I’m not trying to pass judgment on the merits or fairness of the U.S.-made world order, either. But when one considers the global reach and impact of the United States in the last 80 years, even the word “superpower” seems inadequate.
The upper hand
Let me be specific, lest I be accused of naiveté or exaggeration. U.S. supremacy has yielded several game-changing advantages. The most obvious is the ubiquitous use of both its language and currency. More people speak English than any other language — but only a quarter of them are native speakers. The British Empire imposed English on its colonies, but more than a billion people living today have voluntarily learned it as a second language to gain access to the U.S.-led system — a perceived ticket to a better life, just as it was for many generations before them.
Education and science form the foundation of that system. It’s a cliché to say that American universities have long attracted the world’s best and brightest, but it’s also true — and highly consequential. So is the role U.S. scientific institutions have played in advancing human progress.
Trump has put the future of both higher education and science in grave danger by slashing government funding, firing scientists en masse, seeking to subjugate universities and scaring international students away from the United States. The images of plainclothes agents snatching students off the streets and forcing them into detention, simply for expressing opinions Trump dislikes, have horrified millions around the world.
The second obvious advantage, the U.S. dollar’s long reign as the de facto global currency, has afforded Washington extraordinary powers that have immensely benefited its economy and financial system. They include the sweeping use of sanctions to protect U.S. interests, targeting non-compliant countries, businesses and individuals. The U.S. government has effectively appointed itself prosecutor, judge and jury. The most common punishment is cutting access to the large American market and the U.S. banking system, which naturally dominates the world.
Not a zero-sum game
In spite of these excesses and frequent displays of American hubris, most countries — China, Russia and a few others excluded — accepted the U.S.-led system, because on balance, its benefits outweighed the costs. This buy-in was the key to success. Trade doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game, and Washington welcomed the prosperity of its partners. When it saw policies that hurt U.S. interests, it sought to level the playing field.
In contrast, Trump believes that, if other countries are doing well, they must be depriving the United States of even greater riches. Never mind that trade deficits are no indication of unfair practices. His tariff fixation, along with his unpredictability, ignorance and erratic decision-making, has put Washington’s economic power at risk.
Some countries may indulge Trump’s demands for “deals” to avoid higher tariffs and give him wins in the short term. But many more are already devising alternatives to their dependence on the U.S.-led system, which will weaken American control and influence in the long run. True, previous efforts to temper U.S. dominance, including forging competition to the dollar, have proven futile. But there has never been an incentive as urgent as the one Trump has provided.
The power of example
His demolition of another advantage the United States long wielded, its unrivaled soft power, is staggering. Apart from the effects of specific policies and actions, such as gutting foreign aid, most of the world is heartbroken that the country it once admired as a beacon of freedom and democracy — despite its flaws and missteps — has become corrupt, belligerent and autocratic.
To be fair, the U.S. image had lost some of its luster long before Trump was first elected in 2016. Having reached its peak at the end of the Cold War, American soft power eroded in the 2000s, particularly as a result of the 2003 Iraq war and the 2008 global financial crisis. But even as other countries accused Washington of hypocrisy for breaking the rules of the international order it had created — and expected them to follow — they still respected its leadership.
That respect, along with American credibility, is now vanishing. The world sees Trump’s actions since returning to the White House as “a dictator’s foreign policy,” to use Columbia University professor Elizabeth Saunders’ description. “Washington has never been a paragon of virtue in its dealings abroad,” she wrote this week. “But the extraordinary nature of Trump’s second term makes clear that presidents before him were, indeed, more constrained in their foreign policy.”
The only part of H.E.S.P. Trump hasn’t discarded is hard power, although it’s not clear he understands that U.S. military superiority depends not only on combat readiness and lethal weapons, but on the more than 800 bases it maintains around the world as well. That was made possible by longstanding alliances and partnerships. Rather than strengthen those ties, Trump is pushing staunch allies away.
Finding the right words
Does he understand just how much power he is giving up? I’m not sure he fully grasps how all the components of U.S. power have worked. If he does, perhaps he doesn’t care, as long as he gets raw personal power and can act as an emperor. Whatever the case, Trump’s biggest accomplishment so far is putting an end to the American century after 80 years.
My usual instinct to temper criticism made me question whether the above image of Uncle Sam digging his own grave was too hyperbolic. I concluded that Trump’s destruction of U.S. power is so breathtaking that almost nothing I say would amount to hyperbole. These are strong words, but we live in unprecedented times. Whether or not one favors an American-dominated world, we must reckon with what’s happening and find the words to describe it.
Yes, U.S. power had waned before Trump, but it remained meaningful and potent. Since reclaiming the presidency, he has decimated all remaining soft power and wrecked much of America’s economic leverage.
He has razed U.S. diplomacy — to him, diplomacy means coercing other countries into appeasing him with “deals” — and crippled the national security apparatus by replacing expertise with incompetence. He has squandered any goodwill for and trust in the United States abroad, alienated friends and foes alike, and even managed to make the country so unappealing that the tourism industry is worried about its future. The shuttering of the U.S. Agency for International Development has already cost thousands of lives.
This is how you lose the world in five months.
What’s your take?
Am I too harsh on the administration or not harsh enough?
Leave a comment below.
Nicholas Kralev is the founder and executive director of the Washington International Diplomatic Academy, and a former Financial Times and Washington Times correspondent. His books include “Diplomatic Tradecraft,” “America’s Other Army” and “Diplomats in the Trenches.”